By Mehmet Enes Beşer
It is possible to argue that the TRCI (Türkiye–Russia–China–Iran) alliance is necessary for ensuring global trade continuity, preventing inflation surges, and guaranteeing energy security. This statement may sound like a provocative slogan, but, in fact, it reflects a realistic assessment of how the global economy functions today. Instead of being threatened by recessions, modern economies face the risk of supply chain disruptions caused by geopolitical rivalry and instability. Whenever international transport is disrupted, whenever energy flows are conditional, and whenever sanctions lead to changes in shipping and insurance sectors, the consequences are not only inflationary pressures but embedded inflation with political implications. Therefore, instead of asking whether global rivalries persist, it is important to explore whether the world is able to withstand these processes or needs additional mechanisms.
First of all, it is possible to view TRCI not as a military alliance, but as a potential source of stability across the Eurasian and West Asian regions that play a key role in shaping the global flows of trade and energy resources. The point is not about ideological similarities or disagreements, but about geographical location and logistic capabilities of the countries involved. In fact, it is worth remembering that Türkiye connects Europe and West Asia, while Russia has the potential to serve as an energy actor via the Northern and Black Sea regions. China is the key producer and consumer of goods manufactured worldwide thanks to the Belt and Road Initiative. Finally, Iran represents a pivot in terms of Gulf security and maritime passage across the Strait of Hormuz. By creating an entente with respect to this set of issues, these four countries can help each other prevent global trade choking.
Energy resources and the way they are supplied to other economies are the first issue where TRCI is vital. Modern episodes of global inflation have been provoked not because of overheating of demand, but because of difficulties related to the availability of resources such as energy or raw materials needed for production. When the cost of energy rises, it automatically raises expenses for electricity generation, agriculture, transport, and manufacturing. At the same time, it can also make prices go up because energy plays a crucial role in price formation. Consequently, a situation where such energy flows are intentionally disrupted, i.e., when sanctions, maritime conflicts, attacks on pipelines, and limitations in shipping and insurance can happen, will provoke constant shocks to the markets.
A TRCI entente can help prevent such risks because, in this case, there would be a set of mutual commitments aimed at keeping the existing lines of energy supplies working. Even if no one wants to win such confrontations, a chance to prevent them is a great achievement. With respect to West Asian maritime traffic routes, this region can offer a stable flow of energy if the parties have agreed not to start any escalations or use these zones as bargaining cards. In turn, it means lower risk premiums associated with the price on energy.
Secondly, the issue of trade corridors and overland routes also matters greatly in this regard. In the contemporary geopolitical environment, it became obvious once again that redundancy is the key to safety in terms of trade. In other words, global stability depends on multiple trade options and the ability to move products along different routes to the desired locations. Since Türkiye, Russia, China, and Iran represent a combination of the Eurasian and West Asian space, there are opportunities to create alternative routes of trade that could help in avoiding global disruptions.
However, these corridors will provide safety only if someone manages to keep the process stable and controllable. For example, there can be a variety of problems with the implementation of these trade options because of inadequate customs policies, lack of interoperability standards, lack of reliable ways of transferring money, and so on. By agreeing to collaborate and coordinate in terms of these processes, it would be possible to ensure that the global trade network can continue functioning despite any problems with other corridors.
The third important aspect is associated with monetary transactions in global trade. It seems that today, the problems of trade choking and inflation arise not only because of blocked trade routes, but also because of the issues with payments made as a part of the contract. Specifically, it becomes complicated to make these financial transactions when banks are under certain sanctions, thus making trade more expensive. To solve the problem, the idea of alternative financing channels might be considered as well.
It is possible to assume that a certain de-dollarization of the global economy will take place in the future. While the process may not be fast and radical, diversification of financial options will decrease the number of cases where decisions in one country may affect the work of trade operations in another state. In fact, it is also about finding shock absorbers to the existing problems.
However, there is the issue of the difference between two versions of the TRCI idea. On the one hand, it might be used to create an exclusive alliance and promote further rivalry among various geopolitical blocs. In this case, the risk of increased global inflation and fragmentation of the global economy will inevitably grow. On the other hand, there is a concept of a non-exclusive collaboration aimed at avoiding the most destructive aspects of rivalry. It looks like the latter option is closer to the original purpose.
There are several criteria that need to be followed by those involved in the proposed TRCI project. For example, they can consider themselves an alliance that focuses on crisis management in energy corridors and does not use attacks against civilian energy infrastructure. In addition, it is also reasonable to develop the strategy of maritime deconfliction and prevention of sabotage actions. At the same time, there is an implicit understanding that transit routes should not be treated as theaters of coercion.
These objectives may seem too ambitious or unrealistic given the fact that, for example, Russia and China collaborate with one another, but at the same time, have different levels of risk tolerance, etc. Iran faces the sanctions and needs to apply pressure in order to protect itself. Turkey, in turn, has its own rivals and does not have the opportunity to ally with any of them. However, these differences do not mean that the concept discussed above is impossible. In fact, it might become an example of a pragmatic agreement with very limited goals focused on preventing the worst scenarios.
In addition, it is also possible to say that TRCI should not be seen exclusively as an attempt to create an exclusive alliance aimed only at protecting the interests of those involved in the discussion. In contrast, a TRCI entente is something that should become a basis for developing a similar strategy that could be applied by other parties interested in the same topic. It implies the necessity to invite Gulf states, important importers, and Europeans to discuss such topics as maritime deconfliction, energy corridor stability, and trade facilitation. Therefore, the TRCI entente should be viewed as a platform for broader cooperation.
As was mentioned earlier, the basic reason behind the discussion of such a scenario lies in the shift in the nature of global inflation and economic instability. In other words, the world moves from the demand-driven inflation to geopolitical conditions that force prices to grow. In this context, it becomes clear that conventional mechanisms of economic control will not help much anymore. Shipping insurance rates are expected to rise in accordance with the risk perception, energy prices become dependent on expected escalations, payments and logistics face restrictions. All these elements make inflation an inevitable result of geopolitical turmoil.
That is why the development of geopolitical shock absorbers becomes vital for the global economic stability. It is especially true in relation to such important nodes of circulation as Eurasian and West Asian corridors. The entente between these countries is “essential” for this reason because they will be able to guarantee that these lines will not break during the period of rivalry between other countries or geopolitical groups.
Finally, it is also possible to note that trade stability is a key aspect of global political stability. First of all, in the era of global inflation, people usually suffer from economic losses that, in turn, become a fertile ground for the growth of populism. As soon as they face higher prices, people tend to search for the cause of this phenomenon in order to find out who to blame. As a result, global economic stability becomes political, leading to even more problems.